On January 2, Russia launched another massive missile attack against Ukraine. Kyiv and Kharkiv were particularly affected. Ukrainian air defenses have reportedly shot down 72 missiles of various types, but there are still casualties, because several residential areas were affected. Experts were particularly interested in one Kh-101 missile – it was produced at the end of 2023.
A building in Kharkiv burns after a Russian missile attack on January 1st, 2024. Image credit: State Emergency Service of Ukraine via Wikimedia (CC BY 4.0)
Defense Express experts examined pictures of a wreckage of one downed Kh-101 and after finding its serial number deciphered that it probably was manufactured in the fourth quarter of 2023. Interestingly, earlier Russian missiles were marked with much simpler serial numbers. Later, they began to be removed, and now their serial numbers do not contain a straightforward date of manufacture.
Russia obviously wants to hide when its missiles are made.
The age of the missiles used in new attacks allows Ukraine to predict when longer or shorter pauses between attacks can be expected because Russia might need some time to restore its missile arsenal. For example, realizing that brand-new missiles are being used may suggest that Russia’s missile reserves are not that large.
But, at the same time, it is clear that Russia continues to produce cruise missiles without much difficulty despite the draconian sanctions.
Russia launched attacks on Kyiv today with Kh-101 cruise missiles. The remains (tail and warhead) of the one found, reportedly indicated it was manufactured in the 4th quarter of 2023, Defense Express reports. pic.twitter.com/x9FE2XGp6N
— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) January 2, 2024
The fact that new missiles are now being used does not mean that new attacks in the short term are unlikely. However, experts say that this is a sign that the frequency of attacks now depends on the pace of cruise missile production.
If earlier Russia could carry out several large missile attacks in a quick succession, because there were a lot of them in their arsenals, now the intensity of the attacks will depend on how quickly those missiles are produced.
The Kh-101 is the latest version of the Kh-55, specifically designed for air launch. The Kh-101 entered service in 2012. It is estimated that one Kh-101 cruise missile costs about 13-15 million dollars. It is believed that the Kh-101 has a range of about 2000 km.
By the way, at the end of last year, the Ukrainians began to suspect that the Russians were already using brand-new Kh-101 missiles, when they were spotted firing flares. There is no doubt that this is a new improvement, created taking into account the lessons of the War in Ukraine.
It’s only the second day of 2024 and Russia attacked Ukraine in huge missile and drone attacks on both of these days. Everyone is hoping that there will be a pause now as Russia will be looking into restoring its missile reserves.
Written by Povilas M.
Sources: Defence-ua.com, Wikipedia