The conflict in Ukraine has prompted a shift in Russia’s nuclear strategy, impacting its trust in conventional forces.
A launcher 9P78-1 of Russian missile system 9K720 Iskander in foreground and a transloader 9T250 in the background. Image credit: Boevaya Mashina via Wikimedia, CC BY-SA 4.0
According to a prominent Western think-tank, Moscow now places greater significance on non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNWs) as a means to deter and counter NATO in potential future conflicts.
Non-strategic nuclear weapons span those arms with a range of up to 5,500 km (3,400 miles), including tactical arms designed for battlefield use, contrasting with longer-range strategic nuclear weapons capable of striking countries on other continents.
The report released on Monday by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has prompted speculation about Russia’s potential willingness to deploy a non-strategic nuclear weapon (NSNW) based on the belief that the West lacks the determination to respond with a nuclear counteraction.
The report suggests that Russia’s perception of the Western reluctance to employ nuclear weapons or accept casualties in a conflict reinforces its aggressive thinking and doctrine regarding non-strategic nuclear weapons.
It posits that the rationale behind using a NSNW would be to carefully escalate a conflict, either to dissuade the US and NATO from involvement or to pressure them into accepting a resolution on Russian terms.
Analysts and policymakers in the West closely monitor a discussion among Russian military experts about potentially lowering Moscow’s threshold for nuclear use. For instance, last year, Russian analyst Sergei Karaganov suggested the need to threaten nuclear strikes in Europe to intimidate and “sober up” Moscow’s adversaries.
William Alberque, the author of the IISS report, noted that Karaganov’s remarks were part of a broader Russian debate on the failure of its military to swiftly and decisively win the Ukraine war.
According to Alberque, there is a concern within Russia that the inability to achieve a quick victory in Ukraine has emboldened Western nations, prompting the current nuclear debate to explore alternative ways to instill fear in the United States.
He highlighted that Western intelligence could detect signals of Russia preparing for a NSNW launch, such as the movement of weapons from storage to an air base and possible conventional strikes near the planned target area to disable radar and anti-missile defenses.
In such a scenario, Putin would likely relocate to a nuclear shelter and elevate Russia’s entire nuclear command and control system to a state of high alert, anticipating a potential significant nuclear response from the United States. Any Russian use of NSNW would require careful calculations by Moscow to determine the optimal “dose” that could coerce adversaries to back down without triggering an uncontrollable cycle of escalation.
The overarching challenge lies in preventing the logic of escalation toward annihilation once the nuclear threshold is crossed and finding effective strategies for containment.
Written by Alius Noreika