The war in Ukraine strongly relies on artillery and drones. Of course, other weapon systems play their part too, but artillery and unmanned aerial vehicles do a lot of work in this war. Ukraine manufactures thousands of drones on its own and they are relatively cheap. Even the tank killer drones are relatively inexpensive. But the shortage of artillery shells is a big problem.
Ukraine is in a desperate shortage of ammunition, while Russia continues to grow its own production of shells. Image credit: Armyinform.com.ua via Wikimedia (CC BY 4.0)
Russia produces nearly three times more artillery shells than the United States and Europe can provide Ukraine, CNN reports, citing NATO intelligence estimates and other sources.
According to NATO intelligence, Russia produces 250,000 artillery shells per month, or about 3 million per year. Meanwhile, the United States and Europe together can annually produce only about 1.2 million shells for Ukraine. This is a heartbreaking difference, which is absolutely inevitably going to have a huge effect on the situation on the battlefield.
The U.S. has set itself a goal of ramping up production of artillery shells to 100,000 a month by the end of 2025. That’s great, but this will still be less than half of Russia’s output. And that production ramp-up will take a lot of precious time.
Analysts note that there is an arms manufacturing war going on right now and the outcome of it is going to be extremely important for Ukraine. Ukraine didn’t choose to be attacked and already showed great determination to win this war. However, it is switching to a new artillery standard and cannot create a large weapons industry while being at war.
M777 towed howitzer in Ukraine. Image credit: Головнокомандувач ЗС України / CinC AF of Ukraine via Wikimedia (CC BY-SA 4.0)
Russia now fires about 5 times more artillery rounds than Ukraine. Because they have them in stock. An anonymous NATO source said that Russia’s ammunition factories are working around the clock. About 3.5 million people work in Russia’s defence industry at the moment – 1-1.5 million more than before the war. However, not all the shells that they are using are actually made in Russia.
Russia imports artillery ammunition from Iran, which has sent around 300,000 artillery shells to Russia in 2023. North Korea has provided Russia with at least 6,700 shipping containers containing millions of rounds of different kinds. While Iran and North Korea do not seem like powerful military allies, they do have a lot of old-school artillery shells, which allows Russia to keep up a devastating pace of its attacks.
Nevertheless, according to CNN, Russia’s weapons stockpiles are still insufficient to meet its needs, so a major breakthrough is not on the horizon. Or so it seems. If Ukraine cannot improve its own ammo situation reliably for a long-term war, it will always be at a huge disadvantage.
Written by Povilas M.
Source: NV.ua